Rice crisis catches Qamrul napping
This year's unusual hike in rice prices caught Food Minister Qamrul Islam napping.
Both Qamrul and the ministry he leads seemed ill prepared all along, but the minister has his own logic for that.“I'm no astrologer,” he told The Daily Star, "How could I possibly anticipate that there would be such a devastating flood?"He was, of course, referring to the flashfloods that washed away 10
lakh tonnes of Boro rice, the only rice Haor farmers grow in a year.
True, it was anyone's guess that flashfloods would strike the vast backswamp in the northeast as early as March.But the writing was on the wall. If only Qamrul and his men could read and act accordingly!Rice reserve in public granaries was on the slides and the staple's
prices were shooting up since January. Policy think-tanks and the media
had been persistent in sounding cautions against the free falling of
food stock.On top of the yearly food-aid programmes, the government initiated a
new Tk 10-a-kg rice programme for 50 lakh ultra poor in late 2016.
Qamrul's ministry distributed over seven lakh tonnes of rice from the
government silos under this new programme, dubbing it as the prime
minister's “Branding Programme” but never making any effort to replenish
the fast depleting stock.
It didn't occur to the food ministry that it has to either locally
procure or import rice to refill the granaries. It didn't also pursue
policy measures, such as duty cuts on import, which would encourage
private procurement from global market. The duty on rice import was 28
percent at the time, discouraging private importers from procuring the
staple from international market.
Ultimately, the market forces came into play in a nasty way, with
private traders and rice millers finding the moment ripe to go for a
windfall through price hike. Qamrul eventually moved to import rice, but it was too late. Already,
prices of rice, especially the coarse ones consumed by the poor, hit a
47 percent increase on year-on-year basis.
It remains a riddle why the food ministry allowed the year-end food
stock to dip below five lakh tonnes (in June FY2017) whereas the rice
stock was nine lakh tonnes in FY2016, 13 lakh tonnes in FY2015 and over
10 lakh tonnes in the two preceding years.
With the government having so poor a stock and the early flashfloods
destroying much of the Haor's Boro output, the predominantly private
sector-led grain market seized the opportunity, much to the agony of
low-income consumers.
"We had three lakh tonnes of rice in hand in April and I thought
we'll be able to replenish the stock by a good Boro purchase during
May-June. But that didn't happen. That's why we're now importing rice to
stabilise the market," Qamrul told this paper.
But he never explained what stopped his ministry and the food
department from early import when it was clear that food stock had
already dipped to a six-year low.
Private sector import almost came to a grinding halt due to
government foot-dragging on relaxing the heavy import duty slapped in
FY2014-15. Only on June 20, the duty was cut down to 10 percent,
facilitating late entry of some relatively cheap rice from India.
Because of the delay in making the import decision, the government
now has to pay more as rice prices on international market have gone up
in the past two months.
In May, the food department could get 1 lakh tonnes of rice at Tk
346.24 crore. But in June, the government imported 2.5 lakh tonnes of
rice for Tk 908.85 crore from Vietnam.
The government is now considering importing rice from Thailand, where
export prices of white rice rose by 10 percent, the highest since
August 2014, according to the Thailand Trade Commission.
This means, the government will have to commit more money when it strikes a deal, expected next week, to import Thai rice.
Back in April, the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) had cautioned the
government: "Rising food inflation since January 2017 needs to be
closely monitored in view of its adverse effect on the poorer
households. Rising rice price in recent months in the backdrop of
declining public stock appears to be the major cause that is pushing
food inflation upward. At present, coarse rice price is about 24 percent
higher than a year ago. Also, average rice price in Bangladesh is about
27.9 percent higher than that in India."
The country's leading independent think-tank also observed that
"Curiously, distribution of rice and wheat saw a strong growth (12.3 per
cent) in the backdrop of the decline in import, procurement and stock
figures."
The thought of low food stock occurred to the food ministry only in
June when, for the first time, Qamrul acknowledged before parliament
that the government's rice stock was indeed low. He then said the
process to import six lakh tonnes of rice was underway.
Data point to a negative correlation between stock and price. Coarse
rice was selling below Tk 31 a kg when stock was 10 lakh tonnes. But it
shot up to Tk 35 as the stock slipped below 10 lakh tonnes, to Tk 39
when it slid below eight lakh tonnes and to Tk 43 as the stock dipped
below six lakh tonnes.
Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam told The Daily Star that
although some rice was lost in the Haor flashfloods, the price should
not have jumped so high. He questioned why the government allowed its
rice stock to deplete in the first place.
"Why have they [food ministry and food directorate] failed to keep
the minimum security stock of rice in the granaries?” said Ilahi Dad
Khan, former director of the food directorate who had a crucial crisis
management role during the 2007-08 global economic meltdown and the 2011
rice shortage.
“They should have noticed well in advance that how fast the food
godowns were drying up due to continuous operations of open market sale
(OMS) since January and exhausting of stock through distributions under
the Tk 10/per kg rice distribution programme.”
During his time in the food directorate, there was always an effort
to keep one million tonnes of food (rice and wheat) stock reserve in the
godowns, he said.
Dr AMM Shawkat Ali, former caretaker government adviser who was
agriculture secretary in late 1990s, said the government should have
allowed private traders to import rice by reducing the high duty much
earlier.
“What took the government so long to go for the duty cut?” he wondered.
Director General of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies
(BIDS) Dr KAS Murshid noted the food ministry should have moved fast to
replenish stock when they were releasing rice in big volume for
distribution among the ultra poor at Tk 10/kg.
But this is not the first time that Qamrul and his ministry acted late.
About two years ago, when wheat stock dried up in government silos,
the food department hurriedly imported over two lakh tonnes of
substandard wheat from a new market -- Brazil.
The grain quality and insect infestation sparked a huge outcry across
the country. Even ruling Awami League men put up barricades at places,
blocking entry of the consignments into public granaries. Later, the
minister had to declare in parliament that they would not import wheat
from Brazil any more and acknowledged that "the wheat looks bad."
In the very next domestic wheat growing season, Bangladesh
experienced, for the first time in Asia, blast (fungal disease) in
wheat. That caused a huge crop loss in wheat and scientists later
confirmed the emergence of wheat blast in Bangladesh was caused by a
South American lineage of fungus.
The government never investigated if there was any direct link
between the import from Brazil and the blast attack, but among the
scientific fraternity there is a strong suspicion that there is.
13 JULY 2017
The Daily Star
==========
catch sb napping = (ভুল করার সময় )
অতর্কিতে/অপ্রস্তুত অবস্থায় ধরে ফেলা,
অস্বাস্তিতে ফেলে দেয়া
nap = ইষৎ নিদ্রা (বিশেষত দিনের বেলা)
ill prepared = অপ্রস্তুত
anticipate = আন্দাজ করা, অনুমান করা
devastating = ধ্বংসাত্মক
flashfloods = আচানক বন্যা, হঠাৎ বন্যা
washed away = বয়ে নিয়ে যাওয়া, ধুয়ে নিয়ে
যাওয়া
backswamp = নিম্ন জলাভূমি, বন্যার পরে
যেখানে পলি জমে থাকে।
(floodplain = নদীর পারের সমতল ভূমি যা
বন্যা হলেই প্লাবিত হয়।)
all along = একেবারে শুরু থেকেই
be anyone's guess = কারো অজানা থাকা,
কেউ না জানা
the writing is on the wall = সুস্পষ্ট
ইঙ্গিত আছে
granaries = শস্যভাণ্ডার
public granaries = সরকারি শস্যভাণ্ডার
on the slides = হ্রাস পাওয়া, ঘাটতি দেখা
দেয়া
think-tanks = বিশেষজ্ঞগণ
free falling = দ্রুত পতন, দ্রুত হ্রাস পাওয়া
cautions = সতর্কতা, সাবধানতা
On top of = তার উপর
ultra poor = হত দরিদ্র
silos = খাদ্য গুদাম, শস্য সংরক্ষণ কাজে
নির্মিত বায়ুনিরোধক ঘর বা গর্ত
dubbing = খেতাব দেয়া
depleting = শূন্য করা, খালি করা
replenish = নতুন সরবরাহ করা
occur to = মনে আসা
procure = সংগ্রহ করা, অর্জন করা, আহরণ
করা
came into play = ব্যবহার করা, আচরণ করা,
প্রভাব বিস্তার করা
windfall = অপ্রত্যাশিত অর্থ
riddle = প্রহেলিকা, ধাঁধা
dip below = নির্দিষ্ট পরিমাণ থেকে কম হওয়া
predominantly = প্রধানত
agony = মর্মবেদনা, সন্তাপ
come to a grinding halt = হঠাৎ থেমে যাওয়া, হঠাৎ থমকে যাওয়া
foot-dragging = গড়িমসি, সময় ক্ষেপন
slapped = কর ইত্যাদি আরোপ করা
facilitating = সহজ করা, সুবিধা দেয়া
monitored = পর্যবেক্ষণ করা
adverse = প্রতিকূল
in the backdrop of = প্রেক্ষাপটে, প্রেক্ষিতে
hurriedly = তড়িঘড়িকরে
substandard = নিম্নমানের
infestation = উপদ্রব, উৎপাত, পোকার আক্রমণ
sparked = তাৎক্ষণিক সৃষ্টি করা
outcry = প্রতিবাদ
consignments = প্রেরিত মাল, একত্রে প্রেরিত মালসমূহ
acknowledged = স্বীকার করা, মেনে নেয়া
emergence = আবির্ভাব, উত্থান
fraternity = ভ্রতৃত্ব,ভ্রতৃসমাজ
Collected by : Masumkhan
Mobile: 01912007750
email: masumkhan121@gmail.com
facebook: facebook.com/masumkhan1122
